James S. Murphy, a senior fellow with the grass-roots organization Class Action, recently authored a new report analyzing federal data on college enrollment in 2024. Using data on over 3,000 colleges and universities, the report compared the 2024 enrollment outcomes to 2022 and 2023 enrollment data to examine the immediate impact of the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision to end affirmative action in higher education admissions.
Both the number and the percentage of underrepresented students of color significantly declined at highly selective institutions in 2024. The largest declines were among Black students. At historically Black colleges and universities, total enrollment and Black student enrollment both declined in aggregate.
Despite these declines, the number and share of underrepresented students of color increased almost everywhere else, most notably at state flagship institutions. For example, Black freshman enrollment increased by 30 percent at Louisiana State University and 50 percent at the University of Mississippi. There was also a slight increase in Black freshman enrollment at institutions with lower graduation rates and expected earnings post-graduation, suggesting more Black students are now attending what would have been their “safety schools” before the end of affirmative action.
Among students of different racial groups, the number and share of White and Asian American freshmen remained relatively stable overall, with a slight uptick in Asian American freshman enrollment at highly selective institutions. Similar to their Black peers, Hispanic students also had an increased enrollment at state flagship institutions. There were also upticks in Hispanic enrollment at more selective institutions that did not provide a legacy preference, but decreases at those that did. This pattern was not seen among Black students.
“The enrollment effects of [Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College] may be surprising, but they were not unanticipated,” writes Murphy. “The end of race-conscious admissions created, at least in its first year, a cascade effect in which highly qualified students of color who would have been much more likely to be admitted to highly selective institutions pre-SFFA ended up enrolling in less selective institutions, to the benefit of the latter institutions.”
He continues, “If one theme unites our present and forthcoming research on post-SFFA enrollment, it is a simple one that I hope the federal government is also mindful of: College admissions is a complicated ecosystem that does incredibly important work that affects the future of our nation and its citizens. It is no place for simple interpretations from simple thinkers.”
Alongside their new report, Class Action launched “The Post-SFFA Enrollment Dashboard,” which allows users to see detailed enrollment outcomes at more than 3,000 higher education institutions across the country.
