The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies has released a new report, “State of the Dream 2026: From Regression to Signs of a Black Recession,” examining the economic conditions facing Black communities in 2025.
Although the unemployment rate for Black Americans slightly improved from November to December, the unemployment rate for Black workers was 7.5 percent by the end of 2025. According to the Joint Center, if that unemployment rate was seen nationwide, it would indicate a recession. Overall unemployment among all Americans was 4.4 percent at the end of December. Unemployment rates among White Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Asian Americans were 3.8 percent, 4.9 percent, and 3.6 percent, respectively.
Year-end unemployment rates were slightly higher among Black women (7.8 percent) than Black men (7.2 percent). This could be due to the significant loss of federal jobs in 2025. Of the 271,000 federal jobs cut last year, an estimated 200,000 were held by Black women. While the overall unemployment rate for all young workers decreased from 9.9 percent in November to 9.2 percent in December, young Black workers unemployment rate decreased from 20.8 percent in November to 14.4 percent in December.
In 2025, the highest unemployment rate for all workers was 4.5 percent in November. However, that month’s unemployment rate among Black workers was 8.2 percent – the highest since August 2021 (8.6 percent). Furthermore, the total job gains for Black workers were the weakest since 2020.
“Regression is not destiny. But neither is progress automatic,” writes Joint Center chief of staff Monica Mitchell. “The path from signs of a Black recession to genuine economic security requires confronting the structural barriers this report documents. It requires more than optimism. It requires the organized power, evidence-based strategy, and moral clarity that have driven every successful movement for racial justice in American history. The dream Dr. King articulated remains both measurable and achievable. Whether we reach it depends on the choices we make in response to what this report reveals.”
