by Jaret C. Riddick and Brendan Oliss
In 2025 the criteria governing the coveted Carnegie Classification for top-tier research universities underwent a significant overhaul. The criteria were simplified to focus on thresholds in spending on research and development and conferrals of research doctorate degrees. A recent policy brief from Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) examined the impact of the 2025 changes on the progress of the nation’s HBCUs toward the gold standard R1 research classification. Newly available data adds to the conclusions of the policy brief about HBCU progress to top-tier research status and strengthens the case for implementing the brief’s recommendations for maintaining that status well into the future.
Two key sources that provide data for the Carnegie classifications are the National Science Foundation (NSF) Higher Education Research and Development (HERD) survey that tracks yearly R&D spending and the National Center for Education Statistics’ Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) that tracks the number and category of research Ph.D.s awarded annually. Note that R1 designates the gold-standard “very high research activity” status for Carnegie classification, and R2 designates “high research activity” status. The recent CSET policy brief used 2021 data from these two sources to examine R&D expenditures and research doctorate conferrals for the 11 HBCUs which held R2 status at that time. The brief highlighted the coming announcement of Howard University as an R1 institution in 2025, and used the 2021 data to predict that from among the remaining 10 R2 HBCUs, North Carolina A&T State University will reach R1 status in the 2025-2027 time frame.
Since the publication of the CSET brief, the 2025 criteria for the Carnegie classification have been enacted, requiring $50 million in R&D expenditures and 70 research doctorates conferred in a year for a university to qualify for the coveted R1 label. In addition, NSF released the latest version of its HERD survey tracking R&D expenditures for 2023, and the NCES released the 2023 IPEDS data on conferral of research doctoral degrees. As predicted, Howard University surpassed both criteria for expenditures and degrees awarded to officially qualify for R1 status. In a bit of surprise, four new HBCUs were announced as R2. Hampton University in Virginia and Delaware State University regained R2 status. Also, South Carolina State University and Virginia State University entered the ranks of R2 for the first time, swelling the ranks of R2 HBCUs to thirteen institutions in 2025. Yet another CSET study predicts that at current pace the number of R2 HBCUs could rise to nearly 20 by 2030.
The latest NSF and NCES data indicate that in 2023 North Carolina A&T State University surpassed the spending threshold for R1 status, but fell just shy of the new Carnegie classification threshold for doctorate conferrals. At this pace, the university should certainly achieve R1 status by the next Carnegie update in 2028. Notably, the same new data showed that the total R&D expenditure for Morgan State University in 2023 more than doubled its 8-year average falling just shy of the R1 spending threshold. Having surpassed the yearly threshold for degrees conferred several times in years past, at the current pace, Morgan State University could achieve R1 status in the 2028-2030 timeframe. The remaining R2 institutions fall significantly below either, or both, thresholds, indicating much less likelihood of achieving R1 status in the near future.
As evidence supports the potential for 3 R1 HBCUs and up to 20 R2 HBCUs by 2030, HBCU leadership and policy makers in government, industry and philanthropy should begin to form strategies that build on the momentum toward achieving top-tier research status to form a foundation for sustaining that status well into the future. Considering the data for existing R1 institutions may provide a hint at which performance benchmarks should drive any such strategy. The figures below provide a comparison of the data of the three HBCUs most likely to hold R1 status by 2030, given the current pace, and selected populations of R1 institutions: (1) “well-established” R1 institutions with greater than $1 billion dollars in R&D expenditure, each producing hundreds of research doctorates in 2023, and (2) “emerging” R1 institutions with $50M – $100M in R&D expenditures in 2023, and at least 70 research doctorates. Note, Howard University falls within the emerging population of R1 institutions.
Figure 1 depicts the research doctorates conferred in 2023 for the well-established (labeled, >$1B R1) and emerging R1 (labeled, $50M – $100M R1) populations, and for Howard, North Carolina A&T, and for Morgan. The degree data is depicted according to the fields of study, defined by the UNESCO International Standard Classification for Education, with proportion of the total for each field noted. The red dashed line on each series of data represents the break between more STEM focused degree fields, and less STEM focused fields.
For the emerging R1 population, a greater proportion of degrees are from less STEM-focused degree fields than for the well-established population. For Howard an even greater proportion is from less STEM-focused fields compared to the two specialized R1 populations, while Morgan matches the emerging population in this regard, the degree fields differ. North Carolina A&T relies heavily on more STEM-focused degree fields, even more so than the established R1 population. The trends in Figure 1 could be an indication that while R1 status can be achieved relying on less STEM-focused degree fields, the top spenders on R&D that attract more research dollars and higher quality faculty sustain their top-tier status by an outsized focus on more STEM-focused fields. North Carolina A&T will conceivably test this notion by entering R1 status with a heavy STEM focus, and perhaps evolving more in less STEM focused degree areas as part of a sustainment strategy.
Figure 2 presents 2023 data for R&D expenditures according to sources of funding defined in the NSF HERD survey. Here, U.S. federal funding and institutional funding dominate. The federal funding category covers all U.S. government agencies and institutional funding is primarily spending from endowment income earmarked to support R&D. The proportion of institutional spending for the emerging R1 institution is almost double that of the well-established R1s. These emerging schools often spend more institutional funding in campaigns to obtain top-tier R1 status. The proportion of federal funding of R&D expenditure for the well-established R1 institutions is 25 percent greater than for the emerging R1s. The average federal funding spent on R&D at each of the well-established R1 institutions is at least $580 million, with the Johns Hopkins University topping the 2023 list for federal funding at just over $3 billion.
Among the HBCUs, North Carolina A&T leads in proportion of institutional funding of R&D. However, both Howard and North Carolina A&T spend less than the average institutional funding spent by the emerging R1 institutions. Morgan leads all averages for federal and, interestingly, state and local funding of R&D spending, while trailing the list on average institutional funding spent in 2023.
The data provides evidence that years of engagement and investment has produced a robust HBCU R&D enterprise on pace to deliver a fleet of top-tier research institutions. Howard is a part of the emerging R1 population, and at the current pace, North Carolina A&T and Morgan State University will join the ranks by 2030, along with at least 20 R2 HBCUs.
Current uncertainty about federal funding of R&D could slow this pace dramatically, and impact global competitiveness by restricting U.S. access to critical talent. While navigating unchartered territory brought on by current conditions at the federal level, HBCU leaders, state and local government, public-private partners, and philanthropic organizations should develop plans, based on trends in existing data, for this R&D enterprise to thrive and sustain the status of top-tier research into future.
For example, the degree conferrals in well-established R1 institutions are more STEM-focused than the emerging R1s. What is the right balance to sustain top-tier status for these HBCUs over time? The current fiscal uncertainty at the federal level makes it clear that institutional funding of research will be critical going forward. However, increasing institutional funding for R&D from endowment income is particularly challenging for HBCUs. Increased state and local support, as seen with Morgan State University, can provide a near-term solution while HBCU leadership develops long-term strategies to grow institutional funding of R&D. Strategic focus for growing and sustaining top-tier research status for HBCUs beyond 2025 should link the balance of research capacity to accelerating institutional capacity to fund R&D.
Note: For this analysis, widely accepted standards for the classification of education statistics were adopted to collect and analyze the data. The International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) is the official framework used to facilitate international comparisons of education systems. It was developed in 1976 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and was revised in 1997, 2011 and 2013. Here, the nearly 40 fields of study defined within IPEDS are displayed in terms of the following 10 ISCED fields: Education, Arts and Humanities, Social Sciences Journalism and Information, Business Administration and Law, Natural Sciences Mathematics and Statistics, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), Engineering Manufacturing and Construction, Agriculture Forestry Fisheries and Veterinary, Health and Welfare, Services and “Other”.
Jaret Riddick is a former senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. Brendan Oliss is a former student data research assistant at CSET, and a recent graduate of Georgetown with undergraduate degrees in biology and political economy.
