A new analysis of historical census data from scholars at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the University of Notre Dame in Indiana has examined the ongoing trend of Black Americans moving away from cities and into suburban areas over the past 50 years.
In 1970, nearly half of all Black people in the United States lived in a large city. Now, only a quarter of Black Americans live in large cities. Over the same time period, the share of Black Americans living in the suburbs rose from 16 percent to 36 percent. This migration away from large urban areas has had a major impact on historically Black and low-income neighborhoods. According to the study, majority-Black neighborhoods with a poverty rate above 20 percent in 1970 have since lost 60 percent of their Black population and 40 percent of their total population.
Through examining census tract characteristics, the study authors investigated the reasons behind this shift. Their analysis revealed that improved amenities and lower housing prices were the most influential on Black suburbanization. Less influential were the effects of suburban decline, gentrification of Black city neighborhoods, and rising levels of income and education.
Notably, suburbanization has resulted in a divergence in income among Black Americans. Over the study period, the median income of the average Black American living in the suburbs rose from 61 percent to 66 percent of the average White American’s income, while the same figure for Black Americans living in a city dropped from 58 percent to 50 percent.
According to the authors, sharp population shifts can create policy concerns, as they can increase the chances for school closures, reduce retail or grocery options, and jeopardize tax revenue. Going forward, the authors call for future research to investigate the economic, social, and political impacts of Black suburbanization.
