A multi-university study published in One Earth has projected a significant widening in racial and socioeconomic disparities as a result of climate change in the United States by the year 2100.
For their study, the authors examined climate and sociodemographic projections for 3,109 U.S. counties to estimate each county’s exposure to extreme heat during June, July, and August. From 2020 to 2100, the median heat index in the U.S. is projected to rise by 6.1°F in a “middle of the road scenario,” where the number of U.S. counties at-risk for extreme heat increases to 66 percent. However, not all U.S. residents will be affected the same way. According to the study, rising temperatures will disproportionately burden older adults, non-Hispanic Black people, and residents in the Southeast. Even under lower-emissions scenarios where gaps remain smaller, disparities will still exist.
Based on their projections, the authors stress there is an urgent need for new climate policies aimed at reducing present-day inequities in heat exposure. The authors call on government policymakers, public health organizations, and community leaders to implement targeted interventions in Southern communities that face the most extreme risks.
The study was led by Kaihui Song of the University of California, Berkeley, with colleagues from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Washington, Princeton University, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
