In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the boll weevil, an agricultural pest, significantly destroyed much of the country’s cotton crops. A study from scholars at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh and Marquette University in Milwaukee has analyzed the long-term impact of the boll weevil infestation, finding the agricultural shock resulted in long-term advantages for Black sons born after the pest appeared.
First appearing in 1892, the boll weevil spread gradually through the cotton-growing region of the United States, infesting all such areas by 1922. This resulted in a 50 percent decrease in total cotton production, leading many farmers – particularly Black farmers – to change tenancy contracts or migrate to other areas.
Using data from historical U.S. censuses, the authors examined more than 700 million links for U.S. residents between 1850 and 1950, examining changes in earnings, occupations, family makeup, residences, and other measures for Black males born before and after the boll weevil’s appearance.
Compared to White sons, Black sons born after the agricultural shock experienced relative increases in wages of 11 percent and relative increases in imputed incomes of 5 percent. This finding held true even among Black sons who remained in the South, rather than relocating to other counties. According to their analysis, the authors estimate that being born after the boll weevil appeared boosted Black sons’ imputed income and had a negative but insignificant effect on White sons’ imputed income rank, representing a 12 percent rise in average income rank for Black sons.
The authors suggest these economic improvements could be related to a wide range of mechanisms related to the boll weevil, including Black fathers’ migration and occupational upgrading, improvements in nutrition and schooling, reductions in the number of children per household, and reductions in racial violence.
