Texas, California, Washington, and Florida were the first U.S. States to implement affirmative action bans. A new report from the National Bureau of Economic Research has examined the long-term effects of these bans on the educational attainment and labor market outcomes of the states’ underrepresented students.
The report drew from two decades of American Community Survey data regarding a sample of Black, Hispanic, and White adults born between 1970 and 1994. The authors used this data to compare the long-term outcomes of students who were older than 17 years old at the time of their state’s ban to those younger than age 17. The older cohort was likely unaffected by the affirmative action ban, while those in the younger group were likely subject to new admissions parameters.
According to their analysis, the authors found Black and Hispanic men were 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points less likely, respectively, than their White male counterparts to earn a college degree after the ban went into effect. Among women, Black and Hispanic students were 0.7 and 1.7 percentage points less likely, respectively, to complete a postsecondary degree than their White peers. Black and Hispanic students were also less likely to earn graduate degrees.
After the bans, labor market outcomes produced varied results. Across all four states, Black men earned 1.3 percent more relative to White men, while Hispanic men’s earnings dropped by 0.9 percent. Economic outcomes were significantly worse for underrepresented women, with Black and Hispanic women earning 8.1 percent and 7 percent less than White women, respectively.
Notably, there was little difference in the educational attainment for men in states with and without bans, but Hispanic women’s educational attainment dropped significantly compared to other racial groups. There were also varied results in labor market outcomes. Compared to states without bans, Black men’s earnings in states with bans rose by 2.6 percent, while Black women and Hispanic women’s earnings dropped by 4.2 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively.
